- Bitcoin dominance closes below a three-year trendline for the first time since 2022, signaling capital shift toward alternative cryptocurrencies.
- The three-week MACD shows a bearish cross after five years, replicating conditions that previously triggered a powerful altcoin market cycle.
- Historical analysis suggests Bitcoin dominance may bottom in October 2025, with altcoins gaining momentum if the fractal pattern continues repeating.
Bitcoin dominance has broken a long-term trendline, while a rare MACD bearish cross signals a potential shift toward altcoins in coming months.
Breakdown of Multi-Year Trendline
Crypto market analyst CrypFlow reported on X that Bitcoin dominance ($BTC.D) has confirmed its first three-week close below the ascending trendline since November 2022. The structure had acted as support for nearly three years, and its loss indicates a structural change.
Trendline breakdowns on this scale have historically preceded capital flows from Bitcoin into altcoins. When Bitcoin dominance declines, it suggests investors are redistributing capital toward alternative cryptocurrencies with higher growth potential.
Although a retest of the broken trendline remains possible in the short term, the longer-term chart now reflects a bearish market setup for Bitcoin’s market share.
MACD Bearish Cross Appears After Five Years
Alongside the breakdown, CrypFlow highlighted that the three-week MACD has produced its first bearish cross in five years. The last instance of this signal was in late 2020, shortly before Bitcoin dominance collapsed and triggered one of the strongest altcoin rallies in recent history.
The MACD cross is widely monitored by traders for momentum shifts. On higher timeframes such as the three-week chart, it often signals multi-month directional moves. A bearish cross at this stage increases the probability of an extended decline in Bitcoin dominance.
Analysts suggest that this combination of a trendline breakdown and MACD confirmation is rare. It sets up market conditions that previously preceded large altcoin cycles, making the current formation closely watched.
October Timeline for Potential Altseason
Historical data from December 2020 shows that from the time of the MACD cross, Bitcoin dominance took roughly 105 days to bottom. If the pattern repeats, a similar timeline today projects a potential bottom in October 2025.
CrypFlow emphasized that the current market structure is nearly identical to the 2020 setup. A brief retest of the broken trendline may occur, offering Bitcoin short-term relief before altcoin markets gain momentum.
If this fractal holds, the months ahead could see capital rotation into altcoins, particularly mid-cap tokens and high-beta assets. With October aligning as the projected turning point, traders are closely monitoring Bitcoin dominance as a guide for the next stage of market rotation.
