- Bitcoin’s 2025 pattern closely resembles its 2021 ATH formation, with the SMA-50 acting as the key momentum divider.
- Derivative data shows long dominance, but liquidations reveal growing stress among overleveraged traders.
- Market correction near $100,000 could decide Bitcoin’s next macro direction amid rising volume and institutional activity.
Bitcoin’s 2025 market structure appears to echo its 2021 peak, with price slipping beneath the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA-50). This technical similarity has sparked debate among analysts about whether the cryptocurrency is nearing another macro turning point.
SMA-50 Breakdown Resurfaces in Bitcoin’s 2025 Cycle
A recent analysis by CryptoELITES (@CryptooELITES) presents a compelling visual comparison between Bitcoin’s 2021 and 2025 price cycles. Both instances show near-identical patterns around the SMA-50, a key technical measure of medium-term trend momentum. The chart highlights how Bitcoin’s surge to new highs was followed by a breakdown beneath this average — a signal that previously marked the start of a broader decline.
In 2021, Bitcoin’s final advance toward its all-time high around $69,000 coincided with the last stage of bullish exhaustion. The failure of the SMA-50 was a verification that there was a loss of trend strength and it would begin a more extended correction that was to continue into 2022. A similar pattern is already occurring with Bitcoin in 2025, whereby a rounded peak has been followed by a test of the same moving average around the $100,000 level.
It is not just technical symmetry reflected in this repeated structure. The market psychology has been cyclical where investors behavior has been swinging between euphoria and caution. The 2025 trend, as the 2021, could be indicating a phase where confidence is getting saturated, and structural weakness is beginning to emerge in the broader market.
There is market data pointing towards a correction period.
Bitcoin was trading at approximately $101,339 on Binance and $101,349 on OKX, losing 2.27% in the past day. In spite of the reversal, the cryptocurrency is gaining 8.44 years-to-date, and 49.42 years-to-last year, amid the consolidation.
The current price trend of Bitcoin is indicative of a recession of a local high of $113,028 reached on October 14, 2025. The pullback followed a vigorous recovery of the pullback that started at the $75,000 area, which can be seen to suggest that some profit taking may be occurring in the major resistance points. The psychological threshold of $100,000 is now a point of contention between sellers and buyers, the first one accumulating; the second one reducing.
This transitional stage has derivative data. The Bitcoin long/short ratio is 2.5753 on Binance and 2.39 on OKX, and it shows that the positions of bulls continue to dominate. Top traders on Binance maintain an even higher ratio of 2.8197, suggesting persistent optimism. However, this imbalance may also heighten the risk of forced liquidations if downside pressure continues.
Rising Volume Signals Market Repositioning
We saw roughly $7.33 million in long liquidations versus $2.99 million in shorts over the past four hours, reflecting a gradual release of leveraged exposure. While these are still moderate figures, they suggest that bullish traders positioned around recent highs are slowly building vulnerability. The streak of liquidation suggests even modest pullbacks can start to hurt an overextended market.
The 24-hour volume of Bitcoin has increased by almost 40% to over $29 billion. Expansion of the volume in the process of correcting the price indicates an increase in market activity as actors rebalance their portfolios or hoard at some perceived discount. This action may be a preliminary step towards periods of stabilization, which preconditions the next directional step.
Bitcoin has fallen by 17.96% and in the past 90 days by 11.92%. It is still up more than 160%, however, long-term, Bitcoin is still up. This cyclical contraction is viewed as corrective and not capitulative, so the market is poised between a renewed rally and further retracement toward $90,000–$92,000 support.
