- Bitcoin’s price rebounded from $114K to $121K as RSI climbed from 41.5 to 47.5, signaling improved market momentum.
- ETF net outflows narrowed sharply while MVRV rose to 2.43, showing strong unrealized profits amid declining trading volumes.
- Active Bitcoin addresses surged to 793,000, with transfer volumes steady at $8.5B and fee volumes up 10.3%.
Bitcoin has rebounded from last week’s dip below $114,000 to trade near $121,000, with improved sentiment across spot, derivatives, ETFs, and on-chain activity. However, falling spot volumes and high profitability levels leave the market’s next move uncertain.
Spot Market Gains Momentum but Lacks Broad Participation
Glassnode reported that Bitcoin’s sharp recovery came after retesting the sub-$114,000 level, pushing the Relative Strength Index from 41.5 to 47.5. This shift signals that the market has moved out of oversold conditions.
Spot Cumulative Volume Delta turned from heavy selling to near-neutral, suggesting that selling pressure has eased. Despite this, spot trading volumes fell 22% to $5.7 billion, indicating that the price rebound is not yet backed by widespread buying activity.
Market Pulse data suggested that while spot sentiment has improved, lower participation levels could limit the rally’s strength. Without stronger inflows, the price recovery could lose momentum and risk another pullback.
Derivatives and ETF Data Show Confidence and Caution
In derivatives, open interest in Bitcoin futures eased to $44.1 billion, while long-side funding rates dipped slightly but remained elevated. Perpetual CVD moved to -$0.2 billion, pointing to stronger buy-side activity from leveraged traders.
Options open interest rose 6.7% to $42.4 billion, showing growing market involvement. The volatility spread narrowed to 10.45%, signaling lower expectations for large price swings. Meanwhile, the 25 Delta Skew stayed above its high band, reflecting ongoing demand for protective puts.
ETF market conditions improved as net outflows reduced by more than half. However, ETF trading volumes dropped 27.7% to $13.7 billion, staying near the low band. ETF MVRV climbed to 2.43, indicating strong unrealized profits that could encourage profit-taking.
On-Chain Strength Meets Rising Profit-Taking Risk
On-chain activity showed renewed strength, with active addresses rising above their high band to 793,000. Transfer volumes remained steady at $8.5 billion, while fee volumes increased 10.3%, suggesting higher demand for transaction processing.
Capital flows slowed slightly, as Realized Cap Change fell to 5.2% but stayed above its high band. Both the Short-Term Holder to Long-Term Holder ratio and Hot Capital Share held steady, indicating a balanced market structure.
Profitability remained high, with 94.1% of supply in profit and Net Unrealized Profit/Loss at 8.5%. The Realized Profit/Loss Ratio reached 1.9, showing that profit-taking is dominant. While momentum has shifted from seller exhaustion to recovery, elevated profitability levels mean the rally could face selling pressure if sentiment changes.
