- The open interest in the top altcoins reaches $ 47 billion, marking a record high and indicating growing market access and potential sharp moves.
- Ethereum (ETH) hits $4.3K on course to retest $4.7K resistance — The market shows strong momentum with capital moved from Bitcoin to altcoins
- Bitcoin trades 1% below its peak, with 95% of supply in profit and strong on-chain metrics supporting price stability near highs.
Ethereum’s rally has pushed the asset to $4.3K, its highest level since December 2021, while leveraged positions in top altcoins have surged to a record $47B. Bitcoin remains near its cycle peak with strong on-chain support.
Ethereum Approaches Key Resistance Zone
Ethereum has risen sharply from $1.5K in April to $4.3K, now just 12.5% below its all-time high of $4.8K. Glassnode reports the asset is closing in on the +1σ Active Realized Price level at $4.7K, a historically important threshold for selling pressure.
This level acted as a ceiling during the March 2024 rally and in previous bull cycles between 2020 and 2021. Price movement around this zone will be closely monitored, as it has often preceded changes in market momentum.
Recent performance has been supported by increased capital rotation toward altcoins, with Bitcoin dominance falling from 65% to 59% in the past two months. Ethereum’s 7-day gain of +25.5% leads the major altcoins, accompanied by double-digit advances in XRP, Solana, and Dogecoin.
Record Open Interest Signals Increased Market Leverage
The combined open interest across the top altcoins has reached $47B, setting a new all-time high. Glassnode data indicates that this buildup of leveraged positions creates a more reflexive market environment, where both upward and downward moves can be amplified.
Market-cap-weighted measurements of altcoin returns show three sustained periods of statistically strong performance over the past four months. Using ±1σ bands applied to 7-day log returns, these periods reveal substantial outperformance compared to historical norms.
Considering Ethereum has led this rally it fits with its historical trends of driving broader altcoin market sentiment. But volatility remains at risk of spiking higher and more suddenly if prices reverse.
Bitcoin Holds Near Cycle Highs
While altcoins have rallied strongly, Bitcoin remains stable just 1% below its all-time high after recovering from a July decline to $112K. Glassnode notes the recovery has been underpinned by resilient on-chain metrics.
Short-Term Holder realized losses during the July pullback were limited, indicating that recent market entrants defended their cost basis. The Short-Term Holder SOPR metric has remained near its neutral reading of 1.0, showing minimal realized losses.
Bitcoin’s next major level is the +1σ Short-Term Holder cost basis at $127K. A breakout above this point could open a path toward the +2σ level at $144K, where historical resistance aligns.
Strong Profitability Among Investors
Data shows 95% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply is in profit, even through recent corrections. This profitability is broad-based across holding cohorts, suggesting minimal capitulation pressure.
An equal-weighted composite measure of age-based holding cohorts reveals that most investors retained unrealized gains during the market drawdown. Support at the mean level during the correction indicates strong holder conviction.
In previous cycles, profitability metrics have been more volatile, but current readings point to a stable investor base and constructive conditions for price stability.
Options Markets Reflect Low Volatility Outlook
In the derivatives market, options pricing shows traders are anticipating continued low volatility. At-the-money implied volatility across all maturities is at multi-year lows. Historically, these periods have often been followed by sharp expansions in realized volatility.
The Deribit DVOL index, a 30-day measure of implied volatility across all strikes, is currently at levels lower than 97.4% of historical readings. It shows that there is no strong demand to hedge against big price volatility.
The 6M/1M implied vol ratio remains heavy, which indicates that traders are looking for high volatility in the long term rather than near-term. This is consistent with circumspect projections over the next two quarters.
Key Price Levels in Focus
For Ethereum, the $4.7K mark remains the critical resistance level, given its historical role as a profit-taking zone. A decisive break above could lead to a more speculative trading phase.
Bitcoin traders are watching $127K as the immediate resistance tied to Short-Term Holder dynamics. A clear move beyond this could target $144K, a level that has capped rallies in past cycles.
Both assets remain near their peaks with strong underlying support. However, record leverage in altcoins and historically low volatility expectations suggest that reactions at these resistance levels could shape the next phase of the market.
