- ETH breaking $4K in August could lead to a retest and continuation toward new highs later in the market cycle.
- If ETH fails to break $4K, a pullback to the bull market support band could set up a higher low in September.
- Both scenarios suggest ETH may reach all-time highs this year, but the timing and route remain uncertain for now.
Ethereum’s current price action is approaching a major resistance near its previous all-time high, with two likely outcomes ahead.
ETH Approaches $4K With Bullish Momentum
Ethereum is trading around $3,526 as of writing, inching closer to the psychological and technical resistance at $4,000. According to Benjamin Cowen, the asset may soon break through this level. In a tweet, Cowen stated that a successful breakout in August could be followed by a retest of $4,000, setting it up as a new support zone.
This scenario could push Ethereum toward the $6,000–$7,000 range. The chart shared shows a white projection line that illustrates a bullish path. This includes a breakout, a potential retest of $4K, and a continued rally into new price discovery. A brief weakness in September would likely only be a backtest of the newly claimed support zone.
If Ethereum successfully establishes $4,000 as support, it would indicate strong buying interest. This breakout structure has historically led to sustained upward movements in previous cycles.
Failure to Break May Lead to a Retest of Support
The alternative outcome is Ethereum being rejected below $4,000. In this scenario, Cowen suggests that the price could return to the Bull Market Support Band. This band consists of key moving averages like the 21-week EMA and 20-week SMA.
If this support zone holds, Ethereum may form a higher low between $3,000 and $3,200 in September. Such a structure would still maintain the asset’s macro uptrend and provide a base for another attempt to move higher later in the year.
The ascending support band indicates additional bullish momentum. Regardless if ETH dips, the market structure is still constructive as we maintain higher lows.
Long-Term Trend Remains Bullish
Although we have short-term confusion, the chart indicates ETH is maintaining a bullish structure. Ethereum has been forming higher highs and higher lows since mid-2022. Both outlined scenarios still suggest a potential move to new all-time highs, just with different timelines.
Cowen emphasized that “the base case remains that ETH sees all-time highs this year,” supported by both short- and long-term chart signals. The Bull Market Support Band is currently sloping upward, signaling strength in Ethereum’s broader market trend.
The prior all-time high near $4,800 remains a strong horizontal resistance. A clean break and retest of the $4,000 level would signal that the market may be ready for new price discovery
Cowen emphasized that timing is the main challenge, not the overall direction. His base case remains that ETH will reach new highs this cycle, although the path may vary.
