- Bitcoin posted green August candles in every post-halving year, averaging a monthly gain of 36.51% across 2013, 2017, and 2021.
- Most traders expect a bearish August in 2025, despite historical data suggesting strong post-halving performance during this specific month.
- Expectations of a September rate cut could combine with Bitcoin’s post-halving August pattern to drive strong momentum throughout the month.
Bitcoin has posted strong gains in August during every post-halving year. Historical data now raises questions about whether this pattern will continue in 2025.
August Performance in Post-Halving Years
Throughout the last post-halving cycles—2013, 2017, and 2021—Bitcoin has posted green in both July and August but then a red in September. These three occurrences suggest a consistent trend that correlates to the halving of Bitcoin.
According to a chart shared by crypto analyst Mikybull Crypto, Bitcoin has averaged a 36.51% gain in August during post-halving years. This observation has drawn renewed attention as Bitcoin enters another August following the 2024 halving.
Traders are now watching closely to see if this pattern continues. The historical strength of August, based purely on price behavior, has made it a key month in the Bitcoin cycle.
Market Sentiment and the 2025 Outlook
Despite this consistent history, sentiment across the market entering August 2025 remains bearish. Many participants expect a pullback, contrary to previous August performances. This view stands in contrast to the pattern outlined in past cycles.
Most traders are convinced this August will not be bullish. However, the data shows that in every post-halving year, August delivered strong positive returns for Bitcoin. This clash between historical trend and market mood creates an uncertain but closely watched scenario.
Anticipated Rate Cut May Influence Price Action
Adding to the setup, expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut in September could also affect Bitcoin’s August performance. Traders often react ahead of major monetary policy changes, positioning assets like Bitcoin in advance.
If this anticipated rate cut aligns with Bitcoin’s historical August trend, the combined effect may drive notable price movement. The convergence of technical history and macro expectations places August 2025 under close observation.
Whether Bitcoin repeats its 36.51% average gain this August remains the central question. For now, historical patterns suggest the month may offer more than the market currently anticipates.
