- Bitcoin’s current rally resembles the 2017 and 2021 cycles, with peaks followed by Ethereum strength and a 30–40 day altseason.
- Ethereum is projected to rally after Bitcoin’s top, setting up a concentrated period of significant altcoin gains into year-end.
- Historical data shows altseason peaks in December–January, typically following a sharp drop in Bitcoin dominance from high cycle levels.
Cyclop, a crypto trader who has navigated three full market cycles, has shared his perspective after spending 13 hours analyzing historical data. His conclusion: the market is following a familiar path from Bitcoin strength to Ethereum’s rise, then into a short but explosive altseason window.
What Previous Cycles Reveal About Market Peaks
Cyclop’s review of past cycles shows a recurring pattern. In 2017, Bitcoin ran from April until December 17 to $19,000 before its dominance fell from 70% to 60%. That loss in dominance kicked off a one-month altseason, which peaked in January of 2018 before a steep fall.
The 2021 cycle showed almost identical behavior. Bitcoin climbed from May to November 10, peaking at $69,000. BTC dominance then fell steeply, from 70% to 38%, unleashing 28 days of powerful altcoin gains before topping out in December.
In both cases, the sequence was clear: Bitcoin’s peak led to a short Ethereum and large-cap rally, then a concentrated 30–40 day altseason, followed by a market-wide sell-off.
Why This Cycle Looks Strikingly Similar
This year, Bitcoin and the total market cap have already hit sustained new highs, while alt-heavy indices like TOTAL2, TOTAL3, and OTHERS are still consolidating. Cyclop believes this mirrors the early stage before rotation seen in previous cycles.
His projection: Bitcoin will soon record a fresh all-time high, then Ethereum will rally toward its own peak over the following month. As Bitcoin dominance begins to correct, capital will rotate toward altcoins.
If the cycle keeps to its historical rhythm, traders could see 20–40 days of intense altcoin performance after Ethereum’s peak, likely placing the altseason climax in the December–January window.
The Nature of the Next Correction
In 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin and Ethereum suffered drawdowns of 70–80% from their peaks. Cyclop expects a smaller retracement this time—around 60%—due to greater market capitalization and institutional participation reducing volatility.
However, he cautions that large-cap altcoins remain vulnerable to declines of up to 90%, as seen in past downturns. The timing and severity of the crash often depend on unforeseen “black swan” events. Examples include the sudden collapses of LUNA and FTX, both of which triggered rapid market sell-offs.
He warns that the shift often comes when sentiment moves from “good” to “can’t get any better.” If a negative catalyst appears during that stage, the decline can be swift and steep.
Positioning for the Final Phase
The forecast of Cyclop puts the most extreme altcoin gains of the market into a small, intense window before year-end. That makes planning exits crucial for anyone active in the market.
Historically, the most successful traders scaled out during the final rally phase rather than holding for the exact top. Once the reversal began, gains evaporated quickly.
To Cyclop, the script is easy: monitor Bitcoin dominance and look for signs of rotation, HODL the Ethereum train, then get the altcoin gains prior to its expected drop. The cycle may repeat its familiar script, but the end can arrive faster than expected.
