- Bitcoin MVRV momentum indicates a confirmed dead cross between 30 day and 365 day averages, which indicates declining inflows despite further price increases.
- Historical evidence is pointing towards the same weakness in 2021 as Bitcoin hit its peak, where capital inflows may have decreased and price gains may have persisted.
- ETF adoption has added structural stability to Bitcoin, yet declining MVRV momentum signals cautious allocation and fading enthusiasm among market participants.
Bitcoin MVRV momentum has printed a dead cross, raising questions on whether the current rally can sustain or risks fading into a deeper correction.
MVRV Momentum Signals Exhaustion
CryptoQuant analyst Yonsei_dent confirmed that Bitcoin’s MVRV momentum has weakened after the 30-day moving average crossed below the 365-day moving average. The dead cross reflects slowing strength even as Bitcoin trades near record levels.
The MVRV ratio measures Bitcoin’s market capitalization against realized capitalization, offering a benchmark for whether the asset is overvalued or undervalued. Traders monitor its moving averages closely for signs of momentum shifts in capital inflows.
Despite Bitcoin’s price climbing above $124,000, the dead cross signals waning investor allocation. The 30-day MVRV decline suggests short-term enthusiasm has cooled compared to longer-term holding trends. This has historically preceded periods of market slowdown.
The comparison with 2021 highlights the risk. At that time, Bitcoin increased from $64,900 to $69,000, a 6.3% gain. However, the momentum of the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) weakened. This divergence indicates a correction phase after the cycle’s peak, suggesting less capital inflow driving the price increase.
Comparing Current Rally With Previous Cycles
In 2025, Bitcoin’s rise from $109,400 to $124,000 represented a 13.3% gain, yet MVRV has fallen again. Analysts suggest that while ETFs have brought stability and legitimacy, capital inflows are not accelerating as aggressively as price action suggests.
The ETF-driven market has reshaped liquidity flows, creating more structural support than in previous cycles. However, weakening MVRV indicates participants are allocating cautiously, reducing the force behind the rally. The divergence between price and MVRV deserves attention as the market tests higher valuations.
CryptoQuant noted that this does not guarantee an immediate reversal, but momentum loss can influence future price strength. The dead cross has historically coincided with exhaustion, making it a crucial technical signal in current conditions.
While history does not repeat exactly, the resemblance to the 2021 top is evident. Then, weakening MVRV momentum pointed to reduced buying pressure, and now, the same pattern emerges despite ETF adoption. Market watchers remain cautious on whether this trend could signal a broader correction ahead.
