- Bitcoin’s October 2025 return of -3.69% breaks a six-year streak of positive “Uptober” performances.
- The last negative October in 2018 preceded a 36% November crash, sparking caution among traders.
- Historical median data shows November often recovers, with steady single-digit gains over multiple years.
Bitcoin ended October 2025 in negative territory for the first time since 2018, closing down 3.69%. The rare red “Uptober” has stirred debate among traders on whether November will mirror the 2018 crash or resume Bitcoin’s usual year-end rebound.
Historical Patterns Point to Mixed November Outcomes
The CoinGlass Bitcoin monthly returns chart offers a decade of perspective, showing that October has traditionally been one of the strongest months for BTC. With an average return of over +14%, it often catalyzes Q4 rallies. This year’s red October, however, breaks that rhythm—prompting traders to ask whether November will follow 2018’s steep correction or the rebound pattern seen in the last three years.
Analyst Crypto Virtuos noted the rare deviation, reminding followers that “the last time it happened, November saw a 36% crash.” Yet, comparing the two periods reveals key differences. The 2018 decline unfolded deep in a bear market, marked by prolonged distribution and vanishing retail participation. In contrast, Bitcoin’s current market shows ongoing accumulation, lower exchange reserves, and rising wallet activity—indicators of long-term holder strength.
Despite recent weakness, Bitcoin’s Q4 history remains favorable. Median data from CoinGlass shows that November and December often post steady single-digit gains, suggesting consistent re-entry from investors anticipating year-end momentum or halving-driven cycles.
Structural Signals Suggest Possible Stabilization
Four consecutive red months from July through October 2025 have already compressed market sentiment, potentially setting the stage for reaccumulation. Historically, similar multi-month declines have been a prelude to relief rallies once the short-term sellers leave the market. This behavior would be in line with the viewpoint that current prices represent an intermediate correction within a greater bull cycle.
Derivatives data supports this cautious optimism. Open interest in Bitcoin futures has begun to climb, indicating renewed trader engagement despite reduced spot volume. At the same time, on-chain metrics show declining BTC balances on exchanges — often a precursor to supply tightening and future price recovery.
However, the macroeconomic backdrop introduces uncertainty. Shifting interest rate expectations and fragile risk appetite could prolong Bitcoin’s sideways movement if liquidity remains limited. A stronger rebound scenario likely depends on improved inflows through institutional products like ETFs, which have influenced prior Q4 recoveries.
Market Awaits November’s Confirmation
With Bitcoin trading near $110,000, everyone is watching to see if the correction will continue or if the upward trend will resume in November. Historically, when October failed to lift sentiment, subsequent months often provided clarity through strong directional moves. Traders are now watching for either a structural bounce confirming cycle continuation or a deeper retest that would resemble 2018’s capitulation phase.
Despite October’s very rare red print, the broader picture would suggest that Bitcoin’s longer-term rhythm remains intact. The cryptocurrency has braved similar phases before and usually rebounds strongly at events of the softening of macro headwinds and improvement in liquidity. Whether November follows 2018’s downturn or the recovery patterns of 2021–2023 will define how BTC approaches 2026’s halving cycle.
